Conta de luz poderá subir até 16,7% com novo modelo para setor elétrico

A nova proposta para o setor elétrico poderá fazer a conta de luz subir até 16,7%, dependendo da distribuidora e do preço praticado no mercado.

O percentual consta de simulações da Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (Aneel) apresentadas na consulta pública que sugere mudança no regime de venda de energia de 14 usinas hidrelétricas antigas da Eletrobras. Pela proposta, a empresa poderia voltar a comercializar a energia a preço de mercado em troca do pagamento de um bônus à União.

Chamado de descotização, esse processo faria as tarifas subirem de 2,3% a 7,1%, dependendo da distribuidora, caso o preço do megawatt-hora passe de R$ 40 (valor cobrado no regime de cotas em condições normais dos reservatórios) para R$ 150. Caso o megawatt-hora seja vendido a R$ 200, preço próximo aos praticados no mercado financeiro nos contratos de energia para 2018, o impacto ficaria entre 3,8% e 11,9%.

Em outra simulação, as contas de luz aumentariam de 5,3% a 16,7% se o preço de mercado do megawatt-hora fosse R$ 250. As simulações consideram que a Eletrobras conseguria pagar os bônus por todas as hidrelétricas que operam sob o regime de cotas. Se a Eletrobras pagasse os bônus de apenas metade das usinas, informou a Aneel, as tarifas aumentariam de 1,9% a 5,9%, se fossem cobrados R$ 200. Com preço de R$ 250, o impacto ficaria entre 2,7% e 8,3%.

Parte do aumento poderia ser compensada com a transferência do risco hidrológico dos consumidores para as usinas. Atualmente, em caso de secas que provoquem queda nos níveis dos reservatórios, os consumidores pagam uma tarifa extra na conta de luz. No novo modelo, o governo está propondo que as usinas assumam o risco e arquem com os custos extras.

Em 2013, ao criar o atual modelo do setor elétrico, o governo Dilma Rousseff renovou automaticamente as concessões de usinas hidrelétricas. Em troca, as usinas teriam de vender energia mais barata sob um regime de cotas, por um preço que apenas cobre o custo de manutenção e de operação.

Em consulta pública desde o início de julho, a proposta para uma medida provisória que alteraria o modelo do setor elétrico abre a possibilidade de que as usinas voltem a vender a energia pelo preço de mercado. Elas, no entanto, teriam de pagar bônus de descotização que podem render até R$ 20 bilhões à União. Com dívidas de R$ 43,5 bilhões, a Eletrobras atualmente não tem caixa para fazer essas operações, mas a empresa pode levantar pelo menos parte do dinheiro após a desestatização.

Em nota, a Aneel ressaltou que a privatização da Eletrobras e a descotização são processos separados. “As contribuições da Aneel à Consulta Pública nº 33 foram apresentadas observando exclusivamente a perspectiva da ‘descotização’, não sendo correto fazer qualquer vinculação à privatização da Eletrobras – matéria essa que ainda está sendo detalhada pelo governo, o que tornaria prematura qualquer análise de impacto tarifário por parte da agência”, informou o texto.

 

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